Many people carry a popular misconception when they go into a casino. This misconception can cost a player a lot of money, and most do not realize that their assumptions have no basis in fact. The concept in question is the gambler's fallacy.

What Is the Gambler's Fallacy?

The gambler's fallacy is the idea that short-term outcomes have the same frequency as long-term outcomes. The most common example is flipping a coin. The odds of heads coming up on any flip are one in two, or 1-to-1, or 50 percent.

If you flip a coin nine times in a row and it comes up tails every time, what are the odds that it will come up heads the tenth time? Many people will say that the odds are very great that the tenth flip will come up heads. In fact, the odds are still 50-50. The coin has no memory of prior events. Before flipping, the odds of ten heads in a row would be very long, but once the nine heads have already occurred, the odds of another head are still 1-to-1.

 

Gambler's Fallacy Applied

The same is true in casino games. Even though red may have come up on the roulette wheel a number of times in a row, the odds of it coming up on the next spin are still 1-to-1 (actually slightly less due to the presence of the green zeroes on the wheel). Betting red continually because it is "due" may lead to disaster.

 

Gambler's Fallacy Concluded

Short-term luck is unpredictable. Therefore, you should base your gambling decisions on correct strategy, and not what has happened over the short term. Following trends has no better chance of improving your gambling results than guessing and you should not rely on it.